The looming 2024 Russian election on March 15-17 has crypto investors on high alert for potential market volatility, even as the imminent Bitcoin halving could spark a bullish rebound in under 40 days.
Given Russia’s status as a major force in global energy markets and cyber threats, any perceived escalation of instability could trigger flights to safety that drain liquidity from riskier crypto assets. Notably, Russia accounts for 12% of the global Bitcoin mining hashrate according to recent data, trailing only the USA at 40% and China at 15% despite its official ban.
As Russia prepares for a presidential vote, market experts anticipate a decrease in crypto investments. The election introduces unknowns. It’s about who will lead and which policies they will implement. This unpredictability often results in cautious trading behaviors. Crypto, known for its sensitivity to geopolitical shifts, may see a temporary slide in value.
Historically, elections have led to conservative trading practices. Investors tend to hold off on new ventures until political dust settles. The Russian election carries global weight. It could alter not just national policies, but international trade and sanctions regimes. These factors affect crypto markets.
How the 2024 Russian Election Could Impact Crypto
The 2024 Russian presidential election is a significant event with potential implications for the crypto market. Concerns about potential sanctions, changes in regulations, and overall market instability, especially surrounding Russia’s relationship with the global financial system, could make investors hesitant. This could lead to reduced demand for cryptocurrencies as investors seek safer havens.
Furthermore, the election outcome could impact Russia’s stance on crypto regulations. A more restrictive regulatory environment could hinder the adoption of cryptocurrencies in Russia while a more favorable approach could have a positive influence on the market.
Bullish Trend with Volatility
Despite the looming uncertainty around the election, Bitcoin (BTC) has displayed a consistent upward trend against the US dollar (USD) over recent periods. This bullish movement suggests a positive sentiment among investors, possibly driven by increased demand or other positive market developments.
Volatility remains a significant part of Bitcoin’s price action, with fluctuations evident within short trading windows. These fluctuations indicate the dynamic nature of cryptocurrency markets, where rapid price changes can occur.
BTC/USD daily price chart. Source. TradingView
As of the latest available data, Bitcoin is valued at approximately $68,558.91. Analysis of recent price movements reveals potential resistance and support levels. A resistance level is observed around the upper $68,000s, and a support level is identified in the lower $66,000s.
BTC Halving May Catalyze Recovery
The Bitcoin halving is a pre-programmed event that reduces the rewards for mining Bitcoin by half. Historically, halving events have had a positive impact on Bitcoin prices, fueled by increased demand and limited supply.
Regardless of any short-term volatility stemming from Russian elections, many analysts forecast the quadrennial Bitcoin halving on April 20th will likely reinvigorate bullish momentum. This pre-programmed event, which slashes BTC’s new supply in half, has historically preceded powerful BTC rallies by constricting liquid supply.
“While markets may be skittish over the 2024 Russia presidential election, crypto investors will quickly turn their focus to the BTC halving under 40 days away,” said Annabelle Huang at Amber Group. “Past bull cycles suggest this iconic event could supercharge BTC’s recovery from any Russian election volatility.”
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